8/20/07

Offensive Comparsion 06-07 vs 07-08 Islanders

New York Islander Fan Central | 8/20/2007 10:28:00 AM
Going into a topic like this it must be made clear players have different roles on different teams. A Ruslan Fedotenko for example will be asked to do a lot more here than he was in Tampa, Mike Comrie will be relied on for much more than he was in Ottawa and Bill Guerin will not have a strong scoring support cast like he had in Dallas or San Jose. To say nothing of what a Bergenheim or Tambellini may produce in an expanded role.

Of course games go well beyond numbers and hard statistics, but just for this topic let's look at where the numbers stand among the forwards no longer here vs who was added.

Player GP G A Pts +/- Pim PPG Shots
Blake 82 40 29 69 1 34 14 305
Kozlov 81 25 26 51 12 28 5 152
Yashin 58 18 32 50 6 44 5 203
Robitaille 50 6 17 23 -2 22 1 74
York 32 6 7 13 -9 14 2 46
Asham 80 11 12 23 3 63 0 85
Smyth 18 5 10 15 0 14 1 49
Zednik 10 1 2 3 -2 2 0 15

Totals 411 112 135 247 +9 221 28 929

Because Bergenheim is likely going to be on the club an overestimation of his stats will be provided. Same for Jeff Tambellini to balance out eight players for eight players.

GP G A Pts +/- Pim PPG Shots
Guerin 77 36 20 56 10 67 9 225
Fedotenko 80 12 20 32 -3 52 2 154
Sim 77 17 12 29 -1 60 2 141
Comrie 65 20 25 45 E 44 7 125
Vasicek 63 6 16 22 -5 51 0 77
Bergenheim 78 15 25 40 +7 46 2 150
Tambellini 79 10 20 32 +2 38 3 125

GP G A Pts +/- Pim PPG Shots
Totals 519 116 136 252 +10 358 25 997

Comparison: GP G A Pts +/- Pim PPG Shots
O6-07: 411 112 135 247 +9 221 28 929
07-08: 519 116 136 252 +10 358 25 997

I was a little generous with Bergenheim's numbers but in a top six forward role twenty five assists and fifteen goals after his solid production in the SEL last year after leaving Russia does not seem a huge stretch.

Tambellini's numbers were scaled back because I don't see him on a top two line and right now it's a stretch to see him on a third line as a left wing with Fedotenko, Bergenheim, Sim, Hilbert and even Simon all left wings as their primary left winger.

Edit 8/20: I took away two goals from Tambellini's estimate but did not subtract two points from the teams totals, that has now been corrected.

At this time the club is relying on someone from last year's squad to replace Poti's numbers and Sutton to replace Hill's offense. I'm brining this up because the defense helps contribute to the numbers the forwards produce.

Overall this will likely not be reflective of the finals numbers for this forward group vs last year's. Too many variables can change performance one way or another I substituted four players who played less than sixty games on this roster last year.

Just a little number crunching on a quiet day so far but one folks who compare last year with this year will likely make.

Comments and discussion always are welcome here or on the message board.

2 comments:

  1. Interesting comparison post, but your math is a little off.

    The point total for the 07-08 group should be
    116+136=252 not 254

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thanks Adam, I corrected the numbers from the blog and explained why.

    Still, on paper with all things being equal who the club brought in can make up for the scoring that was lost.

    ReplyDelete

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