Updated 7/31: Expecting A No Vote Monday Or Later & Then It Gets Ugly/Approved

New York Islander Fan Central | 7/30/2011 09:14:00 AM |

Relax about Monday regardless, that's NYIFC message to all it's readers.

Of course vote YES early and often.

Polls open at 6am, close at 9pm. Decision could come via exit polls projections earlier or if it goes into overtime days/weeks.

Board of Elections: will have have numbers.

Updated 7/31:
Folks have asked, I expect at least a twenty point defeat of the referendum. We provide our reasons below. NYIFC is not a political blog, so take it as the guess work it's intended to be, hope our thoughts are incorrect.

Practically everyone has done their partisan dances, or given their endorsements, lukewarm or otherwise. The silly, biased or uninformed season of media misinformation is almost finished with the sensationalism.

A day more of this, then a vote on Monday, which at best brings it to a legislature brick wall/dead end.

Never believe this is a referendum of the teams fan support, not even the strongest political opposition wants this team to go anywhere or that building to close. Even Jay Jacobs--was adamant about keeping Charles Wang and the Islanders here, despite his comical grasp of the issue.

The Pittsburgh Steelers referendum failed in 1997, this is not about the teams popularity, but taxpayers being asked to spend money.

Charles Wang was fantastic. He has a ton of people to thank Monday, starting with his staff, who have worked very hard all summer.

Hopefully he keeps it classy because in a lot of ways he has won regardless, everyone now knows about the Nassau Coliseum issue, about the New York Islanders with coverage even a Stanley Cup would not have brought to this problem.

I fully expect a NO vote on Monday, then it gets ugly for a while.

Even if this does pass by some chance, no way it receives a super-majority when it's this polarized. When you have people like Jay Jacobs comical idea of PSL's leading the opposition, it's like getting past Kate Murray and those who owns her.

Not happening on those terms. Even Wang said Friday he does not know if he has Kate Murray's support.

No chance NIFA endorses a Mangano plan if that miracle happened.

As I wrote in the beginning back in May expect Ed Mangano to hide behind the will of the people, and use his out. Then it's up to Charles Wang to explore his options, that he's locked into over the next four years unless he has a buyer willing to take on the current lease now?

Bottom line, Mangano-Wang have their out, however this was all done to stay in.

It will get unpleasant, it has to, but it may be the only way to arrive at a solution.

Referendum's have failed and later been constructed.

I have changed views on this because it comes down to individuals, who have worked desperately hard to make this happen.

NYIFC initial instinct was eventual approval of a deal, we're going to stick with it.

Why A No Vote Projection Now:
This is a huge public issue, front-page news for weeks locally, getting national attention. Our guess is very strong turnout regardless of 8/1 date. I would also speculate a defeat of the referendum by a huge margin of over twenty percent.

Wang's interview on WFAN about thirty-forty percent of the season ticket base living outside Nassau County, so many folks writing, I wish I could vote but do not live in Nassau.

It's been the single greatest consistent trend.

Many Nassau residents worried about survival day to day in horrible economic times, vs many more who don't know the difference between a doughnut or a puck?

I have read far too much of it and respect that view, it's overwhelming and nothing to do with a sports team. The Yankees would lose by twenty percent in the Bronx, but Mike Bloomberg is not Ed Mangano and makes sure these are approved in the backroom in a sea of pro baseball propaganda.

Add in the incredible horrid luck of a national default as a backdrop on 8/2 if that is not enough?

The fan/community support has been incredible, it's not a defeat of the Islanders or sports, just higher taxes.

16,000 people need to fill those seats every game next season to force politicians to keep working at it, buying season tickets 8/2 is what makes Wang keep trying, and where every yes voter should put their money on regardless of Monday.

The misguided Long Island campaign (by Wang/Islanders) for a New York team over so many years never got the message this is a New York franchise, same as the other teams who got something built here.

That kind of support mandated deals had to be done behind closed doors, many took years and several false stats, but everyone locally got their agreement.

The Long Island campaign contributed to less media/less interest which equals less fan support, it also invited more biased media against the club taking liberties or to drop/limit coverage and drive away fans.

Win or lose Monday, the New York Islanders/Charles Wang have won already in several ways, receiving genuine support at the worst possible economic times from so many.

We hope this has no effect on immediate player negotiations with Bailey or Comeau.

Next on the Coliseum:
The framework is there for a compromise deal on a new Coliseum, it's likely going to get unpleasant for a while, with the usual Canadian outlets going into full Phoenix mode fueling strong national reaction/misinformation.

Unfortunate, however that comes with the territory.

As written above, it all comes down to Ed Mangano and Charles Wang. Are they enemies by this time next week with an idea the other cannot support? Are Mangano/Wang finished trying, or do they refuse to give up?

Charles Wang is not doing this for real estate anymore, it was kind of dragged out in interviews he's only paying 25m above 350m for construction overages, and it's his option to walk away beyond that. Mangano's general fund is no guarantee to taxpayers supporting this of a clear return which was no favor to Wang.

Wang said probably not on financing a building himself, however did not give an outright no.

If Mangano has a quick plan B, that could be something that forces a Coliseum back to the forefront....or not.

Remember Ed Mangano said he approached Charles Wang with this idea.

If Charles Wang has had enough of trying, it would be impossible to blame him however he's committed to his lease over the next four years (unless Mangano let's him out) his hotel and cable contract are not going anywhere, or his deal in Bridgeport signed this summer.

He has financial reasons to keep working and thousands of people in his corner.

One thing everyone agrees on they don't want the Coliseum closed or the Islanders to leave, that's a good start to the eventual compromise written about in May here.

Hopefully that places negotiations in the backrooms and a deal everyone can sign on to without the political football I have been writing about back in May.

Sadly virtually everything has played out exactly as projected here, there really has been no reason to write any blog entries beyond a few brief updates. Dolan's coverage has done a great deal to hurt a yes vote, lukewarm endorsements notwithstanding.

Monday win or lose is not going to bring a new Coliseum, only more debate, which can always continue.

If anything the only blog entry, NYIFC wanted to do was on the departure of a first class gentleman in Trent Hunter and the best of luck to him moving forward.

Bergen Record: Has Trent Hunter's first comments since leaving the Islanders.

"I’ve been there just as long as Charles and he’s been working so hard to get that building, so I really hope for him and the organization that it goes through because he really deserves it."

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