Been a while since this feature was updated back on 2/29 where the Isles were a point behind my projected pace of ninety three points by going 5-1-1 here.
That loud crash was the Islanders falling well off the projected pace in the recent games.
Projections vs game results.................93 points projected.
Jan 29, Senators-Loss 54 points 24-21-6.....Isles lost
Jan 31, Kings-Win 56 points 25-21-6.........Isles lost two points below pace set.
Feb 2, at Canadians-Loss 56 points 25-22-6..Isles lost
Feb 5, Ducks-Loss 56 points 25-23-6.........Isles lost
Feb 7, at Penguins otl 57 points 25-23-7....Isles lost three points below pace.
Feb 9, at Wild W 59 points 26-23-7..........Isles lost ot four point below pace set.
Feb 12 Flyers L 59 points 26-24-7...........Isles won two points below pace set.
Feb 14, at Maple Leafs L 59 points 26-25-7..Isles won even with pace set.
*******************************************************************
Feb 16, Thrashers W 61 points 27-25-7.......Isles won even with pace set.
Feb 18, Sharks W 63 points 28-25-7..........Isles won even with pace set.
Feb 20, at Capitals ot L 64 points 28-25-8..Isles won ahead of pace set by one pt.
Feb 21, Lightning W 66 points 29-25-8.......Isles won ahead of pace set by one pt.
Feb 23, at Devils L 66 points 29-26-8.......Isles lost ahead of pace set by one pt.
Feb 26, Penguins W 68 points 30-26-8........Isles lost behind pace set by one pt.
Feb 28, at Thrashers W 70 points 31-26-8....Isles win behind pace set by one pt..
************************************************************************
Mar 1 Flyers ot-L 71 points 31-26-9........Isles lost behind pace set by two pts.
Mar 2, Panthers W 73 points 32-26-9........Isles lost behind pace set by four pts.
Mar 4, at Rangers W 75 points 33-26-9......Isles won behind pace set by four pts.
Mar 6, Rangers ot-L 76 points 33-26-10.....Isles lost behind pace set by five pts.
Mar 8, at Flyers L 76 points 33-27-10......Isles lost behind pace set by five pts.
************************************************************************
five points off a projected pace of ninety three points now brings the total to eight eight points which will not be a playoff spot.
************************************************************************
Projected results going back to all-star break for remaining games:
Mar 11 at Lightning W 78 points 34-27-10
Mar 12, at Panthers otl 79 points 34-27-11
Mar 15, at Canadiens L 79 points 34-28-11
Mar 18, Leafs W 81 points 35-28-11
Mar 21, at Devils L 81 points 35-29-11
Mar 23, at Flyers W 83 points 36-29-11
Mar 24, Penguins W 85 points 37-29-11
Mar 27, at Penguins otl 86 points 37-29-12
Mar 29, 2 Flyers W 87 points 38-29-12
Apr 1, Devils W 89 points 39-29-12
Apr 3, Rangers otl 90 points 39-29-13
Apr 4, at Rangers W 92 points 40-29-13
I cannot see any less than ninety two points for the eighth seed and it may take more than that.
Islanders need to go 12-0 to finish with ninety five points. In other words lose one game and the best they can do is ninety three points.
If I had to give an honest guess now I see an eighty-eighty three point team.
Showing posts with label Projecting out the standings. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Projecting out the standings. Show all posts
 |
Projecting out the standings Pt V |
New York Islander Fan Central | 3/11/2008 07:25:00 PM |
Projecting out the standings
|
|
Projecting out the standings Part IV |
New York Islander Fan Central | 2/29/2008 07:47:00 AM |
Projecting out the standings
Has been a while since this feature was updated.
Seems the Islanders are making me look good based on recent results for now as they needed to go 5-1-1 to stay on my projected pace of 93 points.
Projections vs game results.................93 points projected.
Jan 29, Senators-Loss 54 points 24-21-6.....Isles lost
Jan 31, Kings-Win 56 points 25-21-6.........Isles lost two points below pace set.
Feb 2, at Canadians-Loss 56 points 25-22-6..Isles lost
Feb 5, Ducks-Loss 56 points 25-23-6.........Isles lost
Feb 7, at Penguins otl 57 points 25-23-7....Isles lost three points below pace.
Feb 9, at Wild W 59 points 26-23-7..........Isles lost ot four point below pace set.
Feb 12 Flyers L 59 points 26-24-7...........Isles won two points below pace set.
Feb 14, at Maple Leafs L 59 points 26-25-7..Isles won even with pace set.
*******************************************************************
Feb 16, Thrashers W 61 points 27-25-7.......Isles won even with pace set.
Feb 18, Sharks W 63 points 28-25-7..........Isles won even with pace set.
Feb 20, at Capitals ot L 64 points 28-25-8..Isles won ahead of pace set by one pt.
Feb 21, Lightning W 66 points 29-25-8.......Isles won ahead of pace set by one pt.
Feb 23, at Devils L 66 points 29-26-8.......Isles lost ahead of pace set by one pt.
Feb 26, Penguins W 68 points 30-26-8........Isles lost behind pace set by one pt.
Feb 28, at Thrashers W 70 points 31-26-8....Isles win behind pace set by one pt..
*******************************************************************
Islanders despite going 5-2 fell behind pace I set them on at 5-1-1 which would mean a total of 92 points.
Given how the clubs in front of them are playing it could take even more than 93 points which was origional projection.
*******************************************************************
Upcoming game projections have only one regulation loss in seven games 3-1-3 and a possible nine of fourteen points, Isles would need to gain a point on this to get back to a 93 point pace for the season.
Mar 1 Flyers ot-L 71 points 31-26-9
Mar 2, Panthers W 73 points 32-26-9
Mar 4, at Rangers W 75 points 33-26-9
Mar 6, Rangers ot-L 76 points 33-26-10
Mar 8, at Flyers L 76 points 33-27-10
Mar 11 at Lightning W 78 points 34-27-10
Mar 12, at Panthers otl 79 points 34-27-11
*******************************************************************
I only have two regulation losses listed for the remainder of the seasonn in the next set of games.
*******************************************************************
My Projections of the entire schedule in the first part of this feature are
here for those who wish to reference.
Seems the Islanders are making me look good based on recent results for now as they needed to go 5-1-1 to stay on my projected pace of 93 points.
Projections vs game results.................93 points projected.
Jan 29, Senators-Loss 54 points 24-21-6.....Isles lost
Jan 31, Kings-Win 56 points 25-21-6.........Isles lost two points below pace set.
Feb 2, at Canadians-Loss 56 points 25-22-6..Isles lost
Feb 5, Ducks-Loss 56 points 25-23-6.........Isles lost
Feb 7, at Penguins otl 57 points 25-23-7....Isles lost three points below pace.
Feb 9, at Wild W 59 points 26-23-7..........Isles lost ot four point below pace set.
Feb 12 Flyers L 59 points 26-24-7...........Isles won two points below pace set.
Feb 14, at Maple Leafs L 59 points 26-25-7..Isles won even with pace set.
*******************************************************************
Feb 16, Thrashers W 61 points 27-25-7.......Isles won even with pace set.
Feb 18, Sharks W 63 points 28-25-7..........Isles won even with pace set.
Feb 20, at Capitals ot L 64 points 28-25-8..Isles won ahead of pace set by one pt.
Feb 21, Lightning W 66 points 29-25-8.......Isles won ahead of pace set by one pt.
Feb 23, at Devils L 66 points 29-26-8.......Isles lost ahead of pace set by one pt.
Feb 26, Penguins W 68 points 30-26-8........Isles lost behind pace set by one pt.
Feb 28, at Thrashers W 70 points 31-26-8....Isles win behind pace set by one pt..
*******************************************************************
Islanders despite going 5-2 fell behind pace I set them on at 5-1-1 which would mean a total of 92 points.
Given how the clubs in front of them are playing it could take even more than 93 points which was origional projection.
*******************************************************************
Upcoming game projections have only one regulation loss in seven games 3-1-3 and a possible nine of fourteen points, Isles would need to gain a point on this to get back to a 93 point pace for the season.
Mar 1 Flyers ot-L 71 points 31-26-9
Mar 2, Panthers W 73 points 32-26-9
Mar 4, at Rangers W 75 points 33-26-9
Mar 6, Rangers ot-L 76 points 33-26-10
Mar 8, at Flyers L 76 points 33-27-10
Mar 11 at Lightning W 78 points 34-27-10
Mar 12, at Panthers otl 79 points 34-27-11
*******************************************************************
I only have two regulation losses listed for the remainder of the seasonn in the next set of games.
*******************************************************************
My Projections of the entire schedule in the first part of this feature are
here for those who wish to reference.
|
|
Projecting out the standings PT III |
New York Islander Fan Central | 2/15/2008 02:11:00 PM |
Projecting out the standings
Islanders are not making me look too good here with my projections but they are breaking some trends both ways which means things meet in the middle. From the last
update here Isles were two points off my projected pace of 93 points.
Going into doing this I wrote there will be no changes in projected results, regardless of injuries, trades/whatever.
Projections vs game results.................93 points projected.
Jan 29, Senators-Loss 54 points 24-21-6.....Isles lost
Jan 31, Kings-Win 56 points 25-21-6.........Isles lost two points below pace set.
Feb 2, at Canadians-Loss 56 points 25-22-6..Isles lost
Feb 5, Ducks-Loss 56 points 25-23-6.........Isles lost
Feb 7, at Penguins otl 57 points 25-23-7....Isles lost three points below pace.
Feb 9, at Wild W 59 points 26-23-7..........Isles lost ot four point below pace set.
Feb 12 Flyers L 59 points 26-24-7...........Isles won two points below pace set.
Feb 14, at Maple Leafs L 59 points 26-25-7..Isles won even with pace set.
Currently the Islanders with the recent wins in games projected to be losses are back on the pace I projected them to have 93 points. They broke the Flyer/Leaf trends this year and at ACC with wins and the Pens game should have gone to ot and in Minnesota team has the lead late.
Isles now have to go 5-1-1 to stay on the pace I had them on which is for 93 points.
Feb 16, Thrashers W 61 points 27-25-7
Feb 18, Sharks W 63 points 28-25-7
Feb 20, at Capitals ot L 64 points 28-25-8
Feb 21, Lightning W 66 points 29-25-8
Feb 23, at Devils L 66 points 29-26-8
Feb 26, Penguins W 68 points 30-26-8
Feb 28, at Thrashers W 70 points 31-26-8
The first blog on this projecting out all the games is here for those curious.
update here Isles were two points off my projected pace of 93 points.
Going into doing this I wrote there will be no changes in projected results, regardless of injuries, trades/whatever.
Projections vs game results.................93 points projected.
Jan 29, Senators-Loss 54 points 24-21-6.....Isles lost
Jan 31, Kings-Win 56 points 25-21-6.........Isles lost two points below pace set.
Feb 2, at Canadians-Loss 56 points 25-22-6..Isles lost
Feb 5, Ducks-Loss 56 points 25-23-6.........Isles lost
Feb 7, at Penguins otl 57 points 25-23-7....Isles lost three points below pace.
Feb 9, at Wild W 59 points 26-23-7..........Isles lost ot four point below pace set.
Feb 12 Flyers L 59 points 26-24-7...........Isles won two points below pace set.
Feb 14, at Maple Leafs L 59 points 26-25-7..Isles won even with pace set.
Currently the Islanders with the recent wins in games projected to be losses are back on the pace I projected them to have 93 points. They broke the Flyer/Leaf trends this year and at ACC with wins and the Pens game should have gone to ot and in Minnesota team has the lead late.
Isles now have to go 5-1-1 to stay on the pace I had them on which is for 93 points.
Feb 16, Thrashers W 61 points 27-25-7
Feb 18, Sharks W 63 points 28-25-7
Feb 20, at Capitals ot L 64 points 28-25-8
Feb 21, Lightning W 66 points 29-25-8
Feb 23, at Devils L 66 points 29-26-8
Feb 26, Penguins W 68 points 30-26-8
Feb 28, at Thrashers W 70 points 31-26-8
The first blog on this projecting out all the games is here for those curious.
|
|
Projecting out the standings updated |
New York Islander Fan Central | 2/06/2008 05:39:00 AM |
New York Islander Fan Central
|
Projecting out the standings
Islanders remaining games:
Jan 29, Senators-Loss 54 points 24-21-6
Jan 31, Kings-Win 56 points 25-21-6
Feb 2, at Canadians-Loss 56 points 25-22-6
Feb 5, Ducks-Loss 56 points 25-23-6
To date Islanders are two points off the pace I set them on and have dropped to thirteenth in the conference with the loss to the Kings as they remain at 54 points.
Next set of games I called for points and wins in my projections. Given how the teams that used to be below them are gaining it's not looking good at all if they cannot generate some goals and play some defense.
Jan 29, Senators-Loss 54 points 24-21-6
Jan 31, Kings-Win 56 points 25-21-6
Feb 2, at Canadians-Loss 56 points 25-22-6
Feb 5, Ducks-Loss 56 points 25-23-6
To date Islanders are two points off the pace I set them on and have dropped to thirteenth in the conference with the loss to the Kings as they remain at 54 points.
Next set of games I called for points and wins in my projections. Given how the teams that used to be below them are gaining it's not looking good at all if they cannot generate some goals and play some defense.
|
|
Projecting out the standings Pt One |
New York Islander Fan Central | 1/28/2008 10:15:00 PM |
New York Islander Fan Central
|
Projecting out the standings
My favorite feature of the NHL season where I look at the trends of the Islanders season look at the their upcoming schedule and project out the Islanders point total and if they can acquire enough points to make what I consider the playoff mendoza line which starts at ninety two points but could go as high as ninety six points.
As a rule for me part of that mendoza line has to be ten games over five hundred.
Every week or so I will revisit this and we can laugh at how wrong I was about the game or how close I came to getting it correct.
For the first edition of this feature we start with the current standings and the games played. Islanders go into the break with thirty two games remaining and fifty four points.
Note-Regardless of what happens with the Islanders or any team in terms of trades/injuries all predictions made today are final for the rest of the season.
Eastern Conference
Games played/points
1 Ottawa Senators* 50 66
2 Philadelphia Flyers* 48 59
3 Carolina Hurricanes* 52 52
****************************************************************
4 Montréal Canadiens 49 60
5 New Jersey Devils 49 59
6 Pittsburgh Penguins 49 58
7 Boston Bruins 49 55
8 New York Islanders 50 54
*****************************************************************
9 Rangers 51 54
10 Washington Capitals 50 51
11 Atlanta Thrashers 52 50
12 Florida Panthers 51 49
13 Buffalo Sabres 48 48
14 Toronto Maple Leafs 51 48
15 Tampa Bay Lightning 50 45
Islanders remaining games:
Record 24-20-6 54 points
Jan 29, Senators-Loss 54 points 24-21-6
Jan 31, Kings-Win 56 points 25-21-6
Feb 2, at Canadians-Loss 56 points 25-22-6
Feb 5, Ducks-Loss 56 points 25-23-6
Feb 7, at Penguins otl 57 points 25-23-7
Feb 9, at Wild W 59 points 26-23-7
Feb 12 Flyers L 59 points 26-24-7
Feb 14, at Maple Leafs L 59 points 26-25-7
Feb 16, Thrashers W 61 points 27-25-7
Feb 18, Sharks W 63 points 28-25-7
Feb 20, at Capitals ot L 64 points 28-25-8
Feb 21, Lightning W 66 points 29-25-8
Feb 23, at Devils L 66 points 29-26-8
Feb 26, Penguins W 68 points 30-26-8
Feb 28, at Thrashers W 70 points 31-26-8
****************************************************************
Mar 1 Flyers ot-L 71 points 31-26-9
Mar 2, Panthers W 73 points 32-26-9
Mar 4, at Rangers W 75 points 33-26-9
Mar 6, Rangers ot-L 76 points 33-26-10
Mar 8, at Flyers L 76 points 33-27-10
Mar 11 at Lightning W 78 points 34-27-10
Mar 12, at Panthers otl 79 points 34-27-11
Mar 15, at Canadiens L 79 points 34-28-11
Mar 18, Leafs W 81 points 35-28-11
Mar 21, at Devils L 81 points 35-29-11
Mar 23, at Flyers W 83 points 36-29-11
Mar 24, Penguins W 85 points 37-29-11
Mar 27, at Penguins otl 86 points 37-29-12
Mar 29, 2 Flyers W 87 points 38-29-12
Apr 1, Devils W 89 points 39-29-12
Apr 3, Rangers otl 90 points 39-29-13
Apr 4, at Rangers W 92 points 40-29-13
There we are folks, ninety three points, eleven games over five hundred and what is a good shot at one of the last playoff seeds. Could be wrong by a lot either way or correct but this is how I see things projecting out given the trends and not too many critical injuries or major trades for a club going for it now or cashing in if they go into a major tailspin.
As a rule for me part of that mendoza line has to be ten games over five hundred.
Every week or so I will revisit this and we can laugh at how wrong I was about the game or how close I came to getting it correct.
For the first edition of this feature we start with the current standings and the games played. Islanders go into the break with thirty two games remaining and fifty four points.
Note-Regardless of what happens with the Islanders or any team in terms of trades/injuries all predictions made today are final for the rest of the season.
Eastern Conference
Games played/points
1 Ottawa Senators* 50 66
2 Philadelphia Flyers* 48 59
3 Carolina Hurricanes* 52 52
****************************************************************
4 Montréal Canadiens 49 60
5 New Jersey Devils 49 59
6 Pittsburgh Penguins 49 58
7 Boston Bruins 49 55
8 New York Islanders 50 54
*****************************************************************
9 Rangers 51 54
10 Washington Capitals 50 51
11 Atlanta Thrashers 52 50
12 Florida Panthers 51 49
13 Buffalo Sabres 48 48
14 Toronto Maple Leafs 51 48
15 Tampa Bay Lightning 50 45
Islanders remaining games:
Record 24-20-6 54 points
Jan 29, Senators-Loss 54 points 24-21-6
Jan 31, Kings-Win 56 points 25-21-6
Feb 2, at Canadians-Loss 56 points 25-22-6
Feb 5, Ducks-Loss 56 points 25-23-6
Feb 7, at Penguins otl 57 points 25-23-7
Feb 9, at Wild W 59 points 26-23-7
Feb 12 Flyers L 59 points 26-24-7
Feb 14, at Maple Leafs L 59 points 26-25-7
Feb 16, Thrashers W 61 points 27-25-7
Feb 18, Sharks W 63 points 28-25-7
Feb 20, at Capitals ot L 64 points 28-25-8
Feb 21, Lightning W 66 points 29-25-8
Feb 23, at Devils L 66 points 29-26-8
Feb 26, Penguins W 68 points 30-26-8
Feb 28, at Thrashers W 70 points 31-26-8
****************************************************************
Mar 1 Flyers ot-L 71 points 31-26-9
Mar 2, Panthers W 73 points 32-26-9
Mar 4, at Rangers W 75 points 33-26-9
Mar 6, Rangers ot-L 76 points 33-26-10
Mar 8, at Flyers L 76 points 33-27-10
Mar 11 at Lightning W 78 points 34-27-10
Mar 12, at Panthers otl 79 points 34-27-11
Mar 15, at Canadiens L 79 points 34-28-11
Mar 18, Leafs W 81 points 35-28-11
Mar 21, at Devils L 81 points 35-29-11
Mar 23, at Flyers W 83 points 36-29-11
Mar 24, Penguins W 85 points 37-29-11
Mar 27, at Penguins otl 86 points 37-29-12
Mar 29, 2 Flyers W 87 points 38-29-12
Apr 1, Devils W 89 points 39-29-12
Apr 3, Rangers otl 90 points 39-29-13
Apr 4, at Rangers W 92 points 40-29-13
There we are folks, ninety three points, eleven games over five hundred and what is a good shot at one of the last playoff seeds. Could be wrong by a lot either way or correct but this is how I see things projecting out given the trends and not too many critical injuries or major trades for a club going for it now or cashing in if they go into a major tailspin.