Seven Teams/Seven Points One Playoff Spot For New York

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Tim Wallace was claimed off waivers by Tampa Bay, Aaron Ness was returned to Bridgeport. 

Updated:
Casey Cizikas was recalled, Travis Hamonic has been removed from IR.

Seven teams/seven points (eight with Carolina), that's playoff reality for the the 2011-12 New York Islanders if you consider this realistic.

Ironically the club seemed to lose more ground winning a while back, than losing, however that's misleading.

It's highly unlikely Ottawa or another team will fall back as far as the 8th seed.

As for the New York Islanders, as written many times here, when they win ten games in a row, we can start having a realistic discussion about a playoff spot, not before.

We're not even close to starting such a discussion.

What is realistic will be a team in that mix of seven-eight clubs is going get on a winning streak, even if the Isles go on a run to match, it may only be enough to keep them on the outside or where they are now.

Problems/Buffalo:
John Tavares went from NHL player of the month, to scoring in one game over three weeks.

Doug Weight moving Matt Martin to right wing to open the game in Buffalo cost them the opening goal after a defensive turnover by MacDonald/Streit. Martin as a RW did not react to Myers coming down the slot with LW Grabner playing his usual spot. 

A bad change cost the Isles the 2-0 goal with Rolston involved.

The scoring problems also make any kind of winning streak not realistic.

Watching Rolston shoot from everywhere (he also had a shot or two from quality areas) is a lot like watching Eaton, Staios, Jurcina throw pucks at the net from bad angles. Low percentage.

Of course Nielsen's goal was a low percentage shot.

Injuries/Illness/Instant Chemistry/What's Ahead?
The New York Islanders have no time for anything but winning hockey games whether it be Rangers, Senators, Flyers, Bruins, or three games with Devils. 


What's realistic is when players are injured/out for a while with illness, they likely come back and struggle.

Hamonic has to use a cage, his view is different. Nabokov has not played since Winnipeg, who knows what the flu and lack of work mean in games?

Al Montoya looks completely unplayable, ironically he came here looking like this a year ago.

Mike Mottau is also skating, but he could have been skating for a while.  

Trade Deadline:
As written in our last entry the depth is not there to make trades unless players come in return for them.

Only thing that changes this is if deHaan, Katic can play hockey games in Bridgeport which could happen perhaps as soon as Friday.

The Isles need to be extra careful with Katic and deHaan and their history with shoulder injuries. 

Tim Wallace was claimed on waivers by Tampa Bay.

Jay Pandolfo continues to play his off wing on the left with Reasoner and Niederreiter.

Eventually we'll see about Bailey, Cizikas recall indicates Bailey could be out.

Our guess is Garth Snow is going to make sure he has depth in the NHL/AHL to finish out the season.

Bridgeport at 16-1-1 gained enough ground to put them in the playoffs but that spot is tenuous.
 

Winning Ugly Not A Long Term Strategy For New York

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No one's complaining about a win, by the end of the season few remember anything but the final standings.

Over eighty two games a few wins are very ugly as was the game against Carolina.

It also has to be written the New York Islanders should be a tired hockey team based on schedule alone, add to that a lot of younger players, too many unproductive older players is a tough mix when the scoring is not evenly distributed, plus your defense gives you nothing in terms of goals at even strength.  

Anyone following closely would have to know Tavares was due to hit a wall and did, he looked exhausted/frustrated against the Blues and was hardly smiling when Spacek went to sleep and he beat Ward, who was also slow to react.

Having written that, a tired Carolina team on their own winning streak had the Isles scrambling for a good part of the game, and did everything but tie the game in the closing seconds.

Cam Ward was injured and did not return for the third period, the Canes also seemed very willing to trade chances.

Bottom line the scoring is mostly about one line, the defense is not going to generate goals,  the players not producing all season are highly unlikely to start doing so now as they eat minutes and produce at best an even shift. 

Built To Last?
Statistically things are all over the map in that department so it's not a reliable barometer. 

Of course you can write a year ago this was a team buried below five hundred, now it's come back from five and six under to reach break even, it's also been a healthier group.

However that's also misleading. 

Good special teams vs team scoring dramatically down, vs great blocked shots totals (a reflection of pressure against/slow defense) with very poor team scoring from it's defense.

Last year's team was a high scoring club for most of the second half. There is no Blake Comeau getting hot or Micheal Grabner on a thirty goal clip this time. Nielsen's picked it up a bit, however that's not reliable based on his history.

It's not happening for Okposo most games at five on five and he's not visible or dominating beyond the few games after his benching. It's troubling he struggled with Tavares because Okposo is the top draft pick expected to be a scoring power forward, to take the pressure off Tavares and Moulson with a big game himself where he carries the line.

Bailey seems most noticeable short-handed as does Martin which are not good signs, sure they skate hard and generate chances at five on five. 

Niederreiter's throwing some big hits, he's coming close but not with the right line-mates to score.

Rolston's been invisible. Reasoner's been hurt or ineffective since camp. Pandolfo blocks shots, but provides no offensive game.  Tim Wallace is not a scorer.

Until the Montreal game, Mark Streit led the defenders in goals with three. For a little reference, Marc-Andre Bergeron, had nine goals in forty six games when he came here in a trade during the end of his first season.

That's a huge problem. 

Eaton, Staios, Jurcina point shots are not likely to produce goals. MacDonald/Hamonic have this ability but has not progressed this season in that area.

Let's also give Nabokov his due, where would this team be without him stealing some games?

For what this is worth it seems the second goalie whether it be Montoya, Poulin against Nashville are not ready when called upon.

Bottom Line here is this defense needs progression and changes before we can write anything happening now is built to last. A year ago there were reasons to believe a returning Streit, with Hamonic, MacDonald, Hillen, Wishart, Martinek could be faster and more productive based on the second half.

The current group is too old/slow/non-scoring/not-physical, that's a big reason why what's happened in 2011-12 cannot be considered team progression, despite Tavares natural individual progress.

Of course the answers could be in the system, who can be added to Hamonic, MacDonald, Streit, but for now what's here is very limited and it shows.

Moving Forward:
It's game by game now. This team plays like it did against Carolina, Ottawa will defeat them handily as will most teams in playoff spots desperate for points. Tavares has to again put the club on his back far too early in his young career. 

If the clubs around them are in sell-mode, the New York Islanders need to have the same mindset because the standings do not lie, nor do the weaknesses.

Sure you can be a seller and work just as hard toward a playoff spot. 

Of course the depth is so thin management likely needs these players just to finish out the schedule while Bridgeport's prospects work toward a playoff spot and an experience they need. 

 

New York Notables

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Not much to write on New York's loss to St Louis.

A makeshift defense, a goaltender obviously who did not steal anything and a team that's played a lot of hockey (but did not look exhausted) against a club almost unbeatable club at home. Montoya had a lot of shots re-directed in front of him to be fair.

Having written this he also looks like the struggling AHL goaltender he was when he was traded here, his reactions are poor, he does not look set for shots.

Nabokov misses a week, it may even come down to Kevin Poulin coming up and starting Saturday.

Niederreiter played well, Nielsen is giving them goals lately that are a bonus, they have to win those games he scores. Win one/lose one likely means a lottery pick.

Tavares, Bailey and Okposo have to produce some goals. Grabner's either hurting since his groin injury or it's something else because he's not getting his breakaways or coming close to displaying the speed he consistently showed for over a full year. 
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Buyers/Sellers:
Garth Snow has little to sell unless the plan is make a play for Rick Nash and give up a big part of their youth movement, Nash would have to waive his NTC.

I see no reason why Columbus would deal Nash with a long-term contract for less than equal value when he should be the player to build around.

Tampa, who now lead New York are benching players available for trade. No criticism for Steve Yzerman (unlike Snow/Guerin) because no one knows why? Different media people, different rules.

For Ty Wishart to go back to Bridgeport, he now has to clear waivers. Katic skated, as did deHaan but contact still not part of it.
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PA Parenteau:
Obviously Parenteau (now Alan Walsh) have not learned what most UFA here have. The less talking in the media, the better a chance of being resigned. Parenteau had twenty goals a year ago, he has twelve now.

Comeau had 20/24 goal seasons and did not get 3.75m tripling Parenteau's contract will bring which is what he claimed he wants.

Moulson for his 20-30 goals makes three million.

I do not see a dominating play-maker at even strength, his assist totals are a bit inflated by PP. Simply put, I move Parenteau at the deadline if it brings a player who helps this franchise moving forward, unless this club puts together a big winning streak and is at the brink of the 8th seed.
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Media:
Islanders website does not need ITV feature a year old on Dolan's worthless coverage when our teams games are blacked out for many. The Islanders have worst hockey media in professional sports (NYIFC has done enough on that) but spare us this garbage.

Howie Rose got nominated for an award? Most games missed or something along those lines? 

Comical and frankly pathetic New York Islander Fans are not even a factor in Dolan's latest coverage issues with a carrier. We all know Dolan will not permit Islander hockey to be shown on free television like he allowed for the Sabres.

Funny how the New York Islanders had the same five hundred record as Cablevision's basketball team entering last night's games, but no urgency to put games on television. 

The Sabres people spoke up and are not happy. 
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Misc:
Ed Mangano gave former Wang Lighthouse partner, Scott Rechler, financing last week, for a new building in Plainview where the Isles offices are, but is giving Wang an exclusive window to pay for a new Coliseum himself?

How generous. 

Of course Mangano is too busy celebrating New Jersey Sports teams to be bothered with Nassau Counties only team or show up for some games. Al D'Amato was at one event.

" Isles Want To Stay At Coliseum, Nothing's Changed "

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NYIFC Twitter has direct quotes from earlier speakers who were all questioned so no creative interpretations or sources required from Tuesday's meeting. 

 " Isles want to stay at the Coliseum, nothing's changed. Nassau County is the first choice, currently talking to Mangano "

-New York Islanders Senior Vice President & Alternate Governor, Michael Picker.

Mr Picker was not on the agenda of speakers, he came in, spoke, was questioned by legislature, received big applause in a mostly empty room.

Rob Walker, spoke for County Executive, Ed Mangano.

Comments/Impressions Based On Live Comments During Webcasted Meeting.
 
The county desperately needs Albany's financing.  Could be a second round of funding awarded also in 2012 according to Kevin Law.

No taxpayer money will be used, the people have spoken angle from referendum came up early per Walker.

The RFP (Request for Proposals) was filed 2/1/2012.

No RFP cannot go forward before 2015 without the Isles approval as the anchor tenant. 

Nassau Coliseum is still an SMG managed facility, despite sublease.

Kevin Law, representing Gov Cuomo (who was invited), said other projects beat out HUB last year and NYS is ready to approve a " shovel-ready " project at site, but it's about competition and best plan.

A decision needs to be reached by end of Dec 2012 according to Rob Walker.

Mr Picker when he spoke even said earlier than that. 

A lot of talk on Kate Murray's zone hurting developers, a lot of failed past history.

Some discussion of the Oct 2011 plan which was briefly released could be workable. 

99.9 percent of Mr Picker's financial talking points were all based on last summers revenue projections of a new Coliseum/loss of team to area...ect, that would include Mr Wang's Arenco company in a lease agreement. 

Many questions of infrastructure, highways, what Picker would describe as later phases with the first being a new Coliseum that could include some LH elements for foot-traffic. Bottom line he wanted to discuss getting the Coliseum done now.

A lot of discussion of past political football with many legislature member, and that it has to end now, talk of locking doors with principals and hammering out deal. Some late talk of even a small amount of public
funding by one speaker on docket.

Ultimately it seems at this time Charles Wang is happy with the framework of what was agreed to last summer, now Albany or another developer have to come up with money.

It does not seem as if tenant Charles Wang is going to pay his landlord for the privilege of building them a new house which was consistent with what he said last summer when he was asked and said " probably not. "

Opening Night Revisited vs Florida Equals Worse Result

Sunday was a little like revisiting opening night, New York playing Florida, five hundred record.

Of course,  no team was 0-0, a big part of the story has already been written.

The 4-1 loss is a part of that story. 

We all know what happened opening night was no fluke. The Panthers turned out to be a good skating team, despite a lot of questionable signings of struggling players, they dominated the Isles top to bottom in the opener and it exposed weakness that showed up many times afterward.

On Sunday Florida was simply more opportunistic, pucks found the net for them, the scoreboard did not reflect the play for the first two periods or the third where New York carried play trailing, the second period was where this game was decided. 

For the moment, New York remains well on the outside of the playoff picture, it's going to take something very special and entirely unlikely from this group for that to change, but considering this blog called it a sixty game exhibition schedule earlier it's hard to have realistic playoff expectations.

The signs clearly show this is not a team hitting on all cylinders. Buffalo, Philadelphia and the Kings outworked the New York Islanders for big parts of games and they got four of six points. Sure the Isles outworked Montreal (to a large degree Florida) and almost got shutout so it evens out.

Still, it's not enough, not close. 

At this time, Nabokov has stepped up his game, however Tavares line has recently struggled to produce, there are injury issues, primary and secondary scoring problems. Despite Mark Streit's overtime game winning goal, his five goals are not nearly enough on a very low scoring defense with the least goals in the NHL.

Aaron Ness has done well, he's not going to carry anything at this stage of his career. Steve Staios for all the negative commentary he has received here has been excellent lately and doing all he can, same for Eaton and Jurcina.

It's not from a lack of effort. 

Next comes the travel/fatigue, except for Howie Rose of course, unless he's going to Florida. 

The kind of games Nabokov won against Philadelphia, and Los Angeles are the kind both goaltenders if called upon will likely need to steal against a high-energy/scoring team at times in Winnipeg, absolutely against the Ken Hitchcock Blues.

Those seven games in eleven days will take it's toll this week. 

No hiding from the standings, the teams between them, or the clubs in playoff position.

Ultimately all of this will be a big part of what Garth Snow decides to do at the deadline, the rest is just a lot of words and speculation.